Yes, China Will Invade Taiwan, but Not Without Capturing the South China Sea First
Many have asked if China will invade Taiwan, and if so, when? China has reiterated that it will take Taiwan by force, if necessary, but the timing remains a mystery to everyone but the Chinese government. This analysis explores the strategic and geopolitical considerations that underpin China's ambitions towards Taiwan, emphasizing the crucial role of the South China Sea (West Philippines Sea, Biển Đông).
China has long hoped to take Taiwan peacefully, promoting the idea of reunification under the 'One Country, Two Systems' framework, a model that allows regions like Hong Kong and Macau to maintain their own economic and administrative systems while being part of China. However, this option is becoming increasingly unlikely as Taiwan has built a strong, distinct identity. The longer Taiwan remains independent, the greater the cultural divide between it and China, making assimilation more challenging. Taiwan's growing sense of nationalism and identity suggests that any attempt by China to reclaim it by force would be met with fierce resistance.
Taiwan holds significant strategic value for China. It is not only a symbol of national pride but also a critical point of control in the Western Pacific. Its location allows for control over major sea routes, which are vital for trade and military movement. Furthermore, Taiwan's advanced semiconductor industry is crucial to global technology supply chains, making its control highly desirable for China's technological ambitions.
Before China can take Taiwan, it will need to secure the South China Sea, an area rich in natural resources. The South China Sea is believed to contain vast reserves of oil and natural gas, which are essential for China's energy security. With China's natural reserves dwindling, securing these resources is crucial for sustaining its economy, especially in the face of potential unified sanctions and trade embargoes.
In the event of an economic embargo similar to what Japan experienced during World War II, China could face severe disruptions. Japan's embargo led to significant shortages in vital resources such as oil and metals, contributing to its aggressive expansionist policies and eventual military conflict. A similar scenario for China would likely lead to widespread economic disruption.
China's rapid industrialization and economic growth over the past few decades have led to a significant depletion of its natural resources. The country is now facing critical shortages in key areas such as energy, minerals, and water. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China's domestic oil production peaked in 2015 and has since been on a decline, forcing the nation to import approximately 70% of its crude oil to meet its consumption needs. Similarly, China's coal reserves, which have historically been the backbone of its energy supply, are being depleted at an alarming rate due to extensive mining and increased consumption.
China's heavy reliance on imported energy makes it particularly vulnerable. In 2019, China became the world's largest importer of natural gas and the second-largest importer of crude oil. If an embargo were to cut off these supplies, China's industrial sectors, which are heavily dependent on continuous energy input, would be crippled. This disruption could lead to widespread power shortages and halt production in key industries, exacerbating economic instability.
The economic strain from resource shortages would likely trigger significant social unrest. Historical precedents, such as the 2011 Arab Spring, show that economic hardship and resource scarcity can lead to mass protests and riots. In China, the urban population, already experiencing economic pressures from rising living costs and unemployment, could react strongly to additional economic downturns caused by an embargo.
Beyond energy, China's water resources are also under immense stress. The World Bank reports that China has only 7% of the world's freshwater resources, yet it supports 20% of the global population. Industrial pollution and over-extraction have further degraded water quality and availability. An embargo could exacerbate food and water shortages, further inflaming public discontent.
Control over the South China Sea would provide China with significant geopolitical leverage. The sea is a major conduit for global trade, with approximately one-third of the world's shipping passing through it. By dominating this region, China could potentially coerce and deter other nations from assisting or supporting Taiwan in the event of a conflict. This is particularly pertinent for Japan, which relies heavily on trade routes through the South China Sea. The ability to threaten or control these routes would give China a powerful tool to influence Japan's actions.
The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) plays a crucial role in China's strategy. Over the past few decades, China has invested heavily in modernizing its navy, transforming it into a formidable force capable of projecting power far from its shores. The PLAN's growing capabilities include advanced submarines, aircraft carriers, and anti-ship missiles, all of which would be instrumental in both securing the South China Sea and launching an invasion of Taiwan.
China cannot invade Taiwan without a robust contingency plan to withstand potential economic sanctions and embargoes. The international community's reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely be severe, with many nations imposing strict economic penalties. By controlling the South China Sea, China could mitigate some of these impacts by ensuring access to vital resources and maintaining critical trade routes. This strategic buffer would be essential for sustaining China's economy during a prolonged conflict.
The United States has a long-standing commitment to Taiwan, as outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act. An invasion of Taiwan would likely trigger a strong military and economic response from the US and its allies. This could include deploying naval forces to the region, imposing economic sanctions on China, and providing military support to Taiwan. The presence of US forces in the region could also complicate China's plans, potentially leading to a broader conflict. The US and its allies might also increase their military presence in the region, conduct joint military exercises, and provide advanced military equipment to Taiwan.
An invasion of Taiwan would have far-reaching implications for regional dynamics in East Asia. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, all of which have significant security ties with the United States, would be directly affected. These nations might increase their military spending and seek closer cooperation with the US to counterbalance China's aggression. Additionally, Southeast Asian nations with claims in the South China Sea, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, could feel threatened. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could embolden China in its territorial disputes in the South China Sea, further destabilizing the region and potentially leading to increased tensions and conflicts.
China's ambition to reunify Taiwan with the mainland is evident, but the path to achieving this goal is fraught with challenges. Securing the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea, Biển Đông) is a crucial step in China's strategy, providing both economic resources and geopolitical leverage. However, the international community's response, particularly from the United States and its allies, will significantly impact the outcome. While the prospect of conflict looms, continued diplomatic efforts and robust defense preparations can help deter aggression and maintain regional stability.
By understanding the complexities of China's strategy and the pivotal role of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea, Biển Đông), we can better appreciate the delicate balance of power in the region and the potential consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.