The effectiveness of a blockade hinges on China's ability to sustain it without incurring unacceptable losses. Unlike the U.S. during the Iraqi War, China would face a formidable opponent in Taiwan. Taiwan has heavily invested in advanced military technology, much of it provided by the United States. From sophisticated missile defense systems to state-of-the-art fighter jets.

The US and China, while understanding the dangers of direct conflict, are likely preparing for a proxy war. Vietnam, with its strategic importance and military capabilities, is at the center of US plans to counter China. While the Philippines is China’s preferred opponent in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea, Biển Đông).

Historically, China has made bold moves, followed by periods of relative quiet, allowing tensions to cool before reasserting its claims. But recently, China appears to be intensifying its actions without the usual pauses, indicating a possible acceleration of its plans to dominate the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea, Biển Đông).

The growing strength of ethnic armed groups also presents a dilemma for the NUG. On one hand, these groups are essential allies in the fight against the Tatmadaw in the Myanmar Civil War (Burmese Civil War). On the other hand, their increased power and autonomy could make them difficult partners in the future.

While the exact timing of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains uncertain, the strategic imperatives suggest that control of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea, Biển Đông) is a necessary precursor.

Keating's assertion that Australia should not challenge China because it would be treated leniently is a dangerous delusion. The idea that Australia can simply stand by and watch as China reshapes the regional order without it affecting Australia is not only unrealistic but also dangerous.

Taiwan's strategic significance, particularly to Japan, cannot be overstated. With China's increasing assertiveness and the ambiguous stance of the United States regarding its defense commitments, Japan faces a critical question: Can it step up to the challenge of defending Taiwan without the United States?

China has a history of leveraging moments when the United States is preoccupied with other crises to advance its interests. This historical context suggests that China's current assertiveness is part of a long-standing strategic approach: waiting for moments of U.S. distraction or weakness to push its agenda.

Despite assumptions that South Korea might join forces with allies like the United States in the event of a war with China, the reality is more nuanced. Unless directly attacked by China, South Korea is poised to remain neutral, prioritizing its national interests and historical experiences over external pressures.

The Philippines has reached an agreement with Beijing on its resupply missions to soldiers aboard a grounded naval vessel in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea), but this is just the beginning of Chinese provocation.

North Korea's nuclear ambitions are a strategic effort to ensure regime survival and achieve reunification goals. Despite severe sanctions and economic hardship, North Korea prioritizes its nuclear program as a bargaining chip. This strategy aims to force the U.S. to withdraw from South Korea, paving the way for reunification.

The South China Sea is a highly contested region, with multiple countries, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, asserting overlapping territorial claims. Among these, Vietnam has notably developed a robust strategy to counter China's expansive claims, blending diplomatic, legal, and military measures. Observing Vietnam's relative success, the Philippines appears to be adopting similar tactics to bolster its position in the disputed waters.

The 2024 U.S. election will significantly influence global trade, tariffs, and the economy. A Kamala Harris victory could lead to predictable, multilateral trade policies, potentially rejoining the CPTPP to foster stronger economic ties and reduce tariffs. Conversely, a Donald Trump win might reignite trade wars, especially with China, through high tariffs and protectionist policies, disrupting global supply chains and creating economic volatility.

As the country stands at the crossroads of modernization and social stability, it faces a critical dilemma: whether to embrace AI and automation fully to boost productivity or to limit these technologies to protect the jobs of millions of low-skilled workers.

India's historical grudge against America, stemming from Cold War-era dynamics and American support for Pakistan, is understandable. However, in the contemporary geopolitical context, it is imperative for India to transcend past grievances and adopt a pragmatic approach to its foreign policy.