Mimicking the Vietnamese Approach: The Philippines' Strategy in the South China Sea
The South China Sea is a highly contested region, with multiple countries, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, asserting overlapping territorial claims. Among these, Vietnam has notably developed a robust strategy to counter China's expansive claims, blending diplomatic, legal, and military measures. Observing Vietnam's relative success, the Philippines appears to be adopting similar tactics to bolster its position in the disputed waters.
Vietnam's approach to the South China Sea dispute is characterized by a combination of legal initiatives, strengthening alliances, and enhancing military capabilities. Despite its relative military and economic inferiority to China, Vietnam has effectively used international law, most notably the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to assert its claims. Additionally, Vietnam has sought to strengthen its military presence in the region and forge stronger ties with major powers like the United States, Japan, and India.
The Philippines, facing similar challenges, has begun to mirror these strategies. The Permanent Court of Arbitration's 2016 ruling in favor of the Philippines, which invalidated China's extensive claims based on the so-called "nine-dash line," provided a legal precedent that the Philippines can leverage, much like Vietnam's use of international law. However, the initial reluctance of the Duterte administration to press this advantage has shifted under subsequent leadership, which appears more willing to assert the country's legal rights.
Vietnam has been proactive in submitting legal documents to international bodies and has actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to garner support from other countries. This multi-faceted approach has helped to internationalize the dispute and apply pressure on China through multilateral forums.
The Philippines is now increasingly adopting a similar legal and diplomatic posture. By reinforcing its claims through international legal mechanisms and actively participating in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) discussions, the Philippines aims to build a coalition of support. This strategy not only helps in legitimizing its claims but also in drawing international attention to China's aggressive tactics.
Vietnam has significantly invested in its military capabilities, focusing on modernizing its navy and coast guard to better patrol and defend its territorial waters. This includes procuring advanced submarines, missile systems, and enhancing its maritime domain awareness through improved surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
The Philippines, recognizing the need for a credible defense posture, is following suit. In recent years, defense spending has increased, and efforts have been made to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). This includes acquiring new naval assets, enhancing coastal radar systems, and improving joint training exercises with allied nations. By boosting its military presence in the South China Sea, the Philippines aims to deter aggression and assert its sovereignty more effectively.
Vietnam has strategically cultivated relationships with powerful nations like the United States, Japan, and India, which share its concerns over China's assertiveness. These alliances have translated into military aid, joint exercises, and diplomatic backing in international forums.
The Philippines is similarly expanding its network of allies. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States allows for a greater rotational presence of U.S. troops and equipment in the Philippines. Additionally, the Philippines is strengthening ties with Japan, Australia, and other regional players, seeking to balance China's influence through a network of supportive states.
Vietnam has also utilized economic initiatives to assert its claims, encouraging oil exploration and fishing activities in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). By establishing a consistent presence, Vietnam underscores its claims to these areas.
The Philippines is adopting a comparable strategy by promoting economic activities within its EEZ. This includes inviting foreign companies for joint oil exploration projects and encouraging local fishermen to operate in disputed waters, thereby reinforcing its territorial claims through economic presence.
While emulating Vietnam's approach provides a comprehensive strategy, the Philippines faces significant challenges. China's economic and military might dwarfs that of the Philippines, and Beijing's aggressive tactics, including the use of maritime militia and coast guard, pose constant threats. Additionally, internal political dynamics and varying levels of commitment to confronting China complicate the Philippines' strategy.
As the South China Sea remains a focal point of regional tension, the Philippines' strategy of emulating Vietnam's approach represents a calculated effort to safeguard its interests. While significant challenges remain, this strategy offers a balanced blend of legal, military, and diplomatic measures that can help the Philippines assert its sovereignty and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the region. Through persistence and strategic partnerships, the Philippines can bolster its defense against encroachments and contribute to a more stable and balanced South China Sea.