The Impact of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump Victory on Asia
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is poised to significantly impact not only America but also the broader global geopolitical landscape. Asia, in particular, stands to be profoundly influenced by the election's outcome due to its critical economic, political, and strategic importance. This article delves into the potential consequences for Asia if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the presidency, examining their policies, past actions, and stated intentions to forecast how their respective victories might shape Asia's future.
Kamala Harris, currently serving as Vice President, is recognized for her centrist positions and her commitment to reinforcing alliances and partnerships. If she were to win the presidency, several key areas would likely be affected. Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's policy of strengthening alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. This includes maintaining strong ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, which aims to counterbalance China's influence, would likely receive continued support and enhancement under a Harris administration. This commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation would signal a steady and predictable U.S. foreign policy in Asia, fostering a sense of stability among American allies.
In terms of trade and economic relations, Harris might explore rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), to deepen economic ties with Asian economies. This move would be seen as a step towards re-engaging with the global economic order and countering China's growing economic influence. Unlike Trump's approach, Harris is likely to favor reducing tariffs and fostering free trade, which could benefit Asian economies that heavily rely on trade with the U.S. Rejoining the CPTPP would not only bolster economic growth but also enhance the U.S.'s strategic influence in the region, presenting a united front against potential economic coercion from China.
Regarding human rights and democracy promotion, Harris has been vocal about human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong. Her administration would probably take a firm stance against these issues, potentially increasing tensions with China but aligning with allies concerned about Beijing's policies. This commitment to human rights could strengthen alliances with countries like Japan and South Korea, which share similar concerns about China's regional ambitions. Moreover, a Harris administration might work more closely with international organizations to address these human rights issues, fostering a collaborative approach to regional stability.
Harris’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and climate action would resonate with several Asian nations facing climate change challenges. Collaborative environmental initiatives could see a boost under her leadership. Asia, being one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, would benefit from enhanced cooperation on renewable energy projects, climate resilience infrastructure, and sustainable development practices. Harris's proactive stance on climate issues could lead to increased investment in green technologies and joint efforts to combat the adverse effects of climate change, thereby strengthening ties with Asian countries on this front.
Donald Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021 was marked by significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy. If he were to return to office, his previous actions provide a strong indicator of what might ensue. Trump's tenure saw the initiation of trade wars, particularly with China. A second term could mean a resurgence of aggressive tariff policies, which might disrupt supply chains and economies in Asia. Countries like South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN members, which have intricate trade relations with both the U.S. and China, could face economic instability and uncertainty. Trump's preference for bilateral over multilateral engagements might lead to a reevaluation of U.S. commitments to regional alliances and organizations, potentially weakening the cooperative frameworks that have underpinned regional stability.
Trump's administration increased the U.S. military presence in the South China Sea as a countermeasure to China’s territorial claims. A similar approach might be anticipated, with potential escalations in military activities and arms sales to allies in the region. This could lead to heightened tensions and an arms race in the Asia-Pacific, with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines caught in the crossfire. While some allies might welcome a robust U.S. military presence, others could view it as a source of regional instability, complicating diplomatic relations.
Trump's unorthodox diplomacy with North Korea could resurface, potentially leading to high-profile summits but uncertain long-term results regarding denuclearization. His direct engagement with Kim Jong-un, while groundbreaking, yielded mixed results, with little progress on substantive denuclearization. A second Trump term might see renewed attempts at diplomacy, but the unpredictability of his approach could lead to fluctuating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Regional stakeholders, including South Korea, Japan, and China, would have to navigate this unpredictability, balancing their security concerns with diplomatic efforts.
Trump's protectionist policies could lead to increased tensions with Asian trading partners, affecting industries and economic stability in the region. His "America First" approach often resulted in unilateral decisions that disrupted global markets and strained relationships with key trading partners. Countries like Japan and South Korea, which have deep economic ties with the U.S., might face significant challenges if protectionist measures are reinstated. Additionally, Trump's history of withdrawing from international agreements, such as the TPP and the Paris Agreement, might continue, leading to less predictable U.S. engagement in regional economic and environmental initiatives. This could create a vacuum that other powers, notably China, might seek to fill, altering the balance of influence in Asia.
Trump's approach to human rights was often seen as inconsistent, with selective enforcement based on strategic interests. This unpredictability could lead to fluctuating U.S. support for democratic movements and human rights in Asia. While he occasionally took strong stances against certain regimes, his overall record suggested a willingness to overlook human rights abuses if it served broader strategic or economic goals. This could result in a more fragmented approach to human rights advocacy in Asia, where U.S. support might wax and wane depending on the administration's immediate priorities.
Trade between the U.S. and China, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, was worth over $635 billion in 2022, underscoring the economic interdependence that any future policies will impact significantly. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that U.S. military expenditures in Asia have been rising, with significant investments in bases in Japan and South Korea. The World Bank highlights that Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change, with millions at risk from rising sea levels and extreme weather events, making international cooperation on environmental issues crucial.
Political analysts, like Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, note that a Kamala Harris administration would likely bring stability and predictability to U.S.-Asia relations, reinforcing alliances and focusing on multilateral approaches. Economic experts, such as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, suggest that Trump's trade policies have been disruptive, and a return could mean more economic volatility for Asia, particularly for countries deeply integrated into global supply chains. Military strategists, like Admiral Harry Harris, former Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, emphasize that the Indo-Pacific strategy will be crucial. Both candidates will prioritize it, but their methods and partnerships will differ significantly.
The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will have far-reaching consequences for Asia. A Kamala Harris victory would likely result in strengthened alliances, a focus on multilateralism, and consistent support for human rights and environmental initiatives. In contrast, a Donald Trump victory could lead to renewed trade tensions, a more unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, and a strategic emphasis on unilateral actions and military strength. Both scenarios present distinct challenges and opportunities for Asia, shaping the region's economic, political, and strategic environment for years to come.