Can Japan step up to the challenge of defending Taiwan without the United States?
East Asia is currently at a critical juncture, with Taiwan's defense emerging as a pivotal issue. Taiwan's strategic significance, particularly to Japan, is of utmost importance. With China's escalating assertiveness and the uncertain stance of the United States on its defense commitments, Japan is confronted with a pressing question: Can it rise to the challenge of defending Taiwan without the United States?
The backdrop of this question lies in the complex and volatile relationship between China, Taiwan, and Japan. Taiwan serves as a crucial buffer between China and Japan, both of which are regional powers with historical animosities and current strategic rivalries. The potential fall of Taiwan to China would not only bring a hostile power to Japan's doorstep but also threaten its vital sea lanes and trade routes. This scenario presents an existential threat to Japan, making Taiwan's defense not just a matter of regional security but of national survival.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) have been evolving over the past few decades. Traditionally constrained by Article 9 of its pacifist constitution, Japan has slowly but steadily expanded its military capabilities. The reinterpretation of the constitution in 2014 to allow for collective self-defense marked a significant shift. This allows Japan to come to the aid of allies under attack, a move that many see as a preparation for potential conflicts in the region, including the defense of Taiwan.
Despite these advancements, Japan's ability to defend Taiwan independently remains questionable. China possesses one of the largest and most rapidly modernizing militaries in the world. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), China's defense budget for 2023 is estimated to be around $225 billion, compared to Japan's $50 billion. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has invested heavily in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, designed to deter and counter interventions by other powers, including Japan. The sheer scale of China's military, combined with its willingness to commit significant resources to the Taiwan issue, presents a daunting challenge for Japan.
One of the critical factors in this equation is the demographic situation in both countries. China, despite its aging population, still has a vast pool of manpower. The Chinese government has been able to leverage nationalist sentiments, portraying Taiwan's reunification as a national imperative. This could translate into a high level of public support and willingness to sustain a prolonged conflict over Taiwan.
In contrast, Japan faces significant demographic challenges. The country has one of the world's oldest populations, with a shrinking pool of young people. As reported by the Japan Times, Japan's population is expected to decline from 126 million in 2020 to under 100 million by 2060. The societal trend towards individualism and a preference for peaceful, prosperous lives makes it uncertain whether young Japanese would be willing to risk their lives for Taiwan. Historically, Japanese society has shown resilience and determination in the face of existential threats, but modern Japan is markedly different from the militaristic society of the early 20th century.
Japan's strategic culture also plays a role in this dynamic. Post-World War II, Japan has been characterized by a strong pacifist streak, a reaction to the devastation of the war. While there has been a gradual shift towards a more assertive defense posture, there remains a significant portion of the population that is wary of military engagements. Convincing the public and the political establishment to support a potentially prolonged and bloody conflict over Taiwan would be a significant hurdle.
Moreover, the logistical and operational challenges of defending Taiwan without US support are substantial. Japan's Self-Defense Forces, while technologically advanced, are not equipped for large-scale amphibious operations or sustained power projection far from their home islands. The SDF's capabilities are primarily defensive, designed to repel invasions and protect the Japanese archipelago. Defending Taiwan would require a significant reorientation of Japan's military strategy and capabilities, including enhancing its amphibious, air, and naval forces.
According to the RAND Corporation, China's navy, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), has over 300 ships, including two aircraft carriers and numerous destroyers and submarines. In contrast, Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) has around 154 ships, including four helicopter carriers and a limited number of destroyers and submarines. While Japan's naval forces are highly advanced, the sheer numerical superiority of China's fleet poses a significant challenge.
The economic implications of such a conflict cannot be ignored. Japan's economy, while robust, is heavily dependent on international trade. A conflict over Taiwan could disrupt vital sea lanes and trade routes, crippling the Japanese economy. This economic vulnerability adds another layer of complexity to Japan's strategic calculations.
However, Japan is not without allies and options. While the US stance may be ambiguous, it is unlikely that America would remain entirely passive in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Biden has stated that the US would defend Taiwan, but the longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity" leaves room for doubt. There is a real possibility that the US might not intervene directly, particularly if it believes that the costs of confrontation with China are too high. This potential US bluffing heightens the need for Japan to prepare for the possibility of going it alone.
Japan could also seek to strengthen its alliances with other regional powers such as Australia, India, and Southeast Asian countries, which share concerns about China's growing influence. Additionally, Japan's technological prowess could be leveraged to enhance its defense capabilities, particularly in areas such as cyber warfare, missile defense, and unmanned systems.
Japan's societal structure further complicates its ability to project military power. Japanese people are known for their reclusiveness and general disinterest in matters outside their immediate country. This cultural trait is underscored by a 2019 Pew Research Center survey, which found that only 27% of Japanese people believe that defending other countries is important, compared to 54% in the United States. This inward-looking tendency poses a significant challenge in mobilizing public support for a foreign conflict.
Japan's ability to defend Taiwan without US support is fraught with challenges. The demographic, societal, and military constraints, coupled with the formidable capabilities of the Chinese military, make it a daunting prospect. However, the strategic imperatives and the existential threat posed by a Chinese-controlled Taiwan mean that Japan cannot afford to be complacent. Strengthening its own military capabilities, building robust alliances, and preparing the public and political establishment for the potential costs of such a conflict will be crucial steps for Japan. While it is an uphill battle, Japan's historical resilience and strategic acumen could yet enable it to step up to this formidable challenge.
As Japan navigates this complex landscape, its decisions will not only shape its own future but also the broader dynamics of East Asia. The stakes are high, and the path forward is uncertain, but the need for a coherent and robust strategy has never been more critical.