China Prepares For An Anticipated U.S. Decline

China's assertive behavior in its geopolitical sphere has raised significant concerns among its neighbors and global powers. This analysis explores how China is methodically preparing for an opportune moment to expand its influence and potentially its borders, particularly anticipating a scenario where the United States is either distracted by war, civil unrest, or experiencing a decline as a superpower. Historical precedents and current strategic maneuvers illustrate China's long-term vision of waiting for the right moment to act decisively.

A critical example of China's strategic opportunism is its actions during the Vietnam War. In 1974, as the United States was deeply embroiled in the conflict in Vietnam, China seized the opportunity to take control of the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam. This move was a calculated decision, knowing that the U.S. was unlikely to intervene directly while it was heavily committed elsewhere. This historical precedent demonstrates China's ability to exploit American distractions to further its territorial ambitions.

China's long-term strategic planning hinges on the anticipation of a potential decline in U.S. global dominance. Beijing views the eventual decline of American power as an inevitability, whether through economic downturns, internal political strife, or overextension in foreign conflicts. By preparing for this eventuality, China aims to position itself as the preeminent power in Asia and beyond.

Nationalism plays a crucial role in China’s assertive foreign policy. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses nationalist sentiment to bolster domestic support and legitimacy. By asserting territorial claims and demonstrating military strength, the CCP reinforces its image as the defender of national sovereignty, thereby distracting from domestic issues and consolidating power.

China's expansionist strategies are driven by a blend of military and economic interests. Control over strategic waterways such as the South China Sea is critical for securing maritime trade routes and accessing undersea resources. Militarizing these regions not only guarantees economic benefits but also enhances China’s ability to project power, thereby establishing dominance over its neighbors.

China has been rapidly modernizing its military, investing heavily in naval capabilities, missile technology, and cyber warfare. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has focused on developing capabilities that could counter U.S. military advantages, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles and advanced submarine fleets. This modernization is part of a broader strategy to ensure that China can act decisively when the U.S. is unable to respond effectively.

China’s approach towards Taiwan and other contested regions reflects a blend of strategic patience and opportunism. While refraining from immediate military action, China maintains constant pressure through military exercises and diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. This strategy ensures that China is ready to act swiftly should the U.S. be unable to support Taiwan due to other global commitments.

In the South China Sea, China has constructed artificial islands and military bases, escalating tensions with neighboring countries and challenging international norms. Similar assertive actions in the East China Sea, particularly regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute with Japan, illustrate China’s broader strategy of creating facts on the ground that can be leveraged in future negotiations or conflicts.

The ongoing border disputes with India, especially the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, highlight China’s readiness to assert its claims through military means. Infrastructure development in these contested areas serves to strengthen China’s strategic positions, ensuring that it is well-prepared for future confrontations when geopolitical conditions are favorable.

China’s strategic calculations are based on various potential scenarios where the U.S. might be unable to counter Chinese moves effectively. These include: A significant conflict in another part of the world that draws U.S. military resources away from the Asia-Pacific region. Severe domestic unrest or political crises distract U.S. leadership and reduce its capacity to respond to international issues. Or prolonged economic challenges that weaken the U.S. ability to project power and influence globally.

China’s assertiveness has led to closer security ties among its neighbors and between these countries and the U.S. However, the effectiveness of these alliances will depend on sustained American engagement. Regional actors, aware of China’s strategy, are enhancing their own military capabilities and forming multilateral security arrangements to counterbalance Chinese influence.

China's assertive and sometimes antagonistic stance towards its neighbors is a calculated strategy aimed at preparing for a future where the United States is either distracted or in decline. By modernizing its military, expanding economic influence, and maintaining constant pressure on contested regions, China is positioning itself to exploit any opportunity that might arise. This long-term strategy underscores the importance of vigilance and strategic planning among global powers to maintain stability and prevent unilateral changes to the international order. As China continues to rise, the global community must navigate this complex landscape with a mix of deterrence, diplomacy, and cooperation to ensure a balanced and peaceful international system.