Will Vietnam be America’s Champion in a Potential US-China Proxy War?
If you don’t want to read, try watching our YouTube video here.
Over the past decade, the United States has significantly strengthened its relationship with Vietnam, a country with which it once engaged in a bitter conflict. A shared strategic interest drives this reconciliation: counterbalancing China's expanding influence in Southeast Asia. As China asserts its dominance in the region, Vietnam, with its robust military capabilities and a history of resisting Chinese aggression, has emerged as a critical partner for the US.
The US has invested heavily in modernizing Vietnam's military, providing advanced weaponry, and engaging in joint military exercises. This support aims to enhance Vietnam’s capacity as a formidable counterweight to China, particularly in the contentious South China Sea. Beyond military collaboration, economic partnerships between the two nations have also flourished. The US is one of Vietnam's largest trading partners, fostering a deep economic interdependence that underpins their strategic alliance. Diplomatic ties have been strengthened through high-level visits and strategic dialogues, ensuring Vietnam remains central to US efforts to contain China.
China, aware of Vietnam's military prowess and historical animosity, recognizes the complexities of engaging Vietnam in a proxy conflict. The two nations have a contentious history, marked by several conflicts, most notably the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. This history shapes China's strategic calculus, leading Beijing to consider Vietnam a formidable opponent that could escalate a conflict into a broader regional confrontation.
In contrast, the Philippines, with its weaker military, is perceived by China as more likely to concede the Scarborough Shoal with little resistance. China's recent territorial encroachments and maritime disputes with the Philippines in the South China Sea suggest a preference for engaging a less challenging US ally. By targeting the Philippines, China hopes to secure a symbolic victory over the US while avoiding the higher risks associated with confronting Vietnam, which is notorious for fighting back.
Despite the Philippines’ efforts to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic channels, China has continued to assert its dominance aggressively. Manila has engaged in bilateral talks, sought support from ASEAN, and appealed to international bodies like the United Nations, but with limited success. China's militarization of disputed territories and the frequent presence of Chinese vessels in waters claimed by the Philippines underscore Beijing’s determination to maintain pressure.
Incidents such as the ramming of Filipino fishing boats by Chinese ships and the harassment of Philippine vessels illustrate China's unrelenting strategy. Despite diplomatic protests and calls for adherence to international law, the Philippines has struggled to dissuade China, highlighting Beijing’s resolve to solidify its claims in the region.
The concept of proxy wars is not new. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in proxy conflicts to avoid direct confrontation, with the Korean and Vietnam Wars serving as prime examples. Today’s geopolitical landscape mirrors this strategy, as the US and China seek to engage indirectly to avoid mutual destruction. Historically, North Korea has been a reliable proxy for China, but its diminished military capabilities make it less viable in the current context. Any conflict involving North Korea could force China into direct involvement to rescue them, which beats the purpose of North Korea being a proxy for China. Both the US and China aim to keep potential conflicts within manageable limits to prevent the conflict from turning into a world war.
Vietnam is acutely aware of the US and China's strategic interests. Having served as a proxy battleground for superpowers during the Cold War, Vietnam is cautious about being drawn into another such conflict. However, Hanoi also recognizes the potential benefits of leveraging the US-China rivalry to its advantage. Vietnam's strategic calculations focus on ensuring its sovereignty while minimizing the risk of being overwhelmed by either superpower. Ideally, Vietnam would prefer the US and China to engage directly, weakening both in the process. This would leave Vietnam regionally stronger, with both superpowers too preoccupied to impose their will on Hanoi. Thus, Vietnam seeks to maintain its strategic autonomy, avoiding dependency on either nation.
The South China Sea remains the most likely flashpoint for any potential proxy conflict. Both the US and China have significant strategic interests in this region. The US aims to ensure freedom of navigation and counter China’s territorial ambitions by supporting Vietnam. Conversely, China seeks to displace the US in Asia by defeating the Philippines, a US ally in this vital maritime area. This delicate balance of power underscores modern geopolitics' intricate and high-stakes nature.
The geopolitical chessboard in Southeast Asia is set for a complex and potentially volatile scenario. While both the US and China understand the dangers of direct conflict, they are likely to prepare for a proxy war. With its strategic importance and military capabilities, Vietnam is at the center of US plans. The Philippines also plays a crucial role in China’s strategy for a swift victory. This delicate balance of power highlights the return of proxy wars as a tool for managing superpower rivalries. The South China Sea is the most probable theater for this unfolding drama as the US and China continue their preparations. The world watches closely, aware that the outcomes of these strategic maneuvers will shape the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.