Why China Might Avoid a Blockade of Taiwan

In recent years, speculation around China's potential military strategies towards Taiwan has intensified, with a blockade often cited as a viable option. Proponents of this theory argue that a blockade would allow China to exert pressure on Taiwan without immediately resorting to full-scale warfare. However, a closer examination reveals that such a strategy may be ineffective and backfire, leading to significant consequences for China on multiple fronts.

First and foremost, the notion of a blockade assumes a level of asymmetry in military capability that may not exist. While China has indeed made significant strides in modernizing its military, Taiwan is not the technologically backward nation that might be susceptible to a blockade. In fact, Taiwan has heavily invested in advanced military technology, much of it provided by the United States. From sophisticated missile defense systems to state-of-the-art fighter jets, Taiwan's military is well-equipped to challenge any attempt by China to isolate it. This raises the critical question: would a blockade achieve its intended goals, or would it merely provoke a more robust and determined response from Taiwan and its allies?

The effectiveness of a blockade hinges on China's ability to sustain it without incurring unacceptable losses. Unlike the U.S. during the Iraqi War, China would face a formidable opponent in Taiwan. Taiwan's advanced missile systems, such as the indigenously developed Hsiung Feng series, can precisely strike Chinese naval vessels. Additionally, Taiwan's air defense capabilities, bolstered by the presence of U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles, would make it exceedingly difficult for China to maintain air superiority over the island. The Chinese Navy, while large, would likely suffer significant casualties in any prolonged blockade, undermining the very purpose of such an operation.

Furthermore, a blockade could have the unintended consequence of galvanizing international support for Taiwan. The global community, particularly the United States and Japan, will have time to coordinate a response. The U.S., bound by the Taiwan Relations Act, has a vested interest in ensuring Taiwan's security. A blockade would provide the U.S. and its allies with the justification to intervene militarily, potentially escalating the conflict beyond China's control. Japan, too, has made it clear that Taiwan's security is directly linked to its own, and it would likely take an active role in any effort to break a Chinese blockade.

The longer a blockade drags on, the more it plays into the hands of Taiwan and its allies. Time would be on Taiwan's side, allowing it to rally international support and potentially even secure additional military aid. Meanwhile, China would face the growing economic and diplomatic costs of its actions. The global economy, already fragile due to various factors, would be further destabilized by a blockade, leading to a backlash against China from not just Western nations but also from its key trading partners in Asia and beyond. The longer the blockade continues, the more isolated China will become on the world stage.

Another critical factor to consider is the potential for a blockade to trigger severe economic sanctions against China. China is deeply integrated into the global economy. Its economic growth heavily depends on international trade, particularly with the United States, the European Union, and Japan. A blockade of Taiwan would almost certainly lead to a raft of sanctions targeting key sectors of the Chinese economy, including technology, finance, and manufacturing. These sanctions would not only cripple China's economic growth but could also lead to internal unrest as the Chinese population feels the pinch of a declining economy.

Indeed, China's long-term goal has always been the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. While the prospects for this outcome have diminished in recent years, particularly under the leadership of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who has taken a firm stance against reunification, a blockade would only serve to further alienate the Taiwanese population. The memories of the 1996 missile crisis, when China fired missiles into the waters around Taiwan in an attempt to intimidate voters during the island's first democratic presidential election, are still fresh in the minds of many Taiwanese. Rather than cowering in the face of Chinese aggression, the people of Taiwan rallied around their fledgling democracy. A blockade would likely have a similar effect, hardening Taiwan's resolve to resist Chinese pressure and maintain its de facto independence.

China's preferred strategy, therefore, may be to pursue a lightning-fast invasion aimed at overwhelming Taiwan's defenses before the international community has a chance to respond. Such a strategy would carry its own risks, particularly in terms of potential casualties and the possibility of a protracted insurgency. However, it would align more closely with China's broader strategic objectives: to quickly and decisively bring Taiwan under its control while minimizing the opportunity for international intervention.

In this scenario, China could attempt to offer Taiwan a degree of autonomy, similar to the "one country, two systems" model used in Hong Kong. While this model has largely failed in Hong Kong, leading to widespread unrest and international criticism, China may calculate that it would be more palatable to the Taiwanese population than outright annexation. By offering Taiwan a semblance of autonomy, China could minimize resistance and present the reunification as a fait accompli to the international community.

While the idea of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan may seem like a plausible strategy at first glance, a deeper analysis reveals significant flaws in this approach. Taiwan's advanced military capabilities, the potential for international intervention, and the economic and diplomatic costs of a prolonged blockade suggest that China may opt for a different strategy. A lightning-fast invasion, while risky, may offer a more viable path for China to achieve its objectives without the prolonged and costly quagmire that a blockade would entail. However, even this strategy is fraught with challenges, and the international community must remain vigilant to ensure that any attempt to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is met with a strong and coordinated response.

For further reading:

CSIS’ article - How China Could Blockade Taiwan in a China Taiwan conflict.